Sunday, May 27, 2007

Mock Lottery

Here's my pre-Orlando take on the NBA Lottery (I'm not going to claim knowledge about the fringe foreign prospects yet which would completely tank my late first round projections):

1. Portland Trail Blazers - Kevin Durant

Durant just makes too much sense for the Blazers. They already have a stud power forward in Randolph (despite all of his off-court shenanigans, the boy can flat out play) and as has been written countless times, LaMarcus Alridge and Greg Oden do not have complimentary styles of play. So I've got the Blazers taking Durant. I'm probably wrong but my gut says they go with the next D-Wade / LeBron type player.

2. Seattle Supersonics - Greg Oden

They've been trying to draft a quality big man for the past three years and according to this projection, they get their man. Additionally, with Oden manning the middle and Allen shootin' lights out at the 2, Rashard Lewis may have enough incentive to stick around. Added bonus: Oden saves Seattle basketball.

3. Atlanta Hawks - Mike Conley

They have way too many wing players and a huge, glaring, ridiculous need for a real point guard (and yes, a center). Conley is their guy. Knowing the Hawks, they'll take another over-rated UNC prospect in Brandan Wright whose post game is a joy to watch but the kid just plays with no fire. As an ACC alum, I've seen him countless times and I always come away saying, if he put in half the effort of Hansborough, he'll end up a superstar. HUGE MISTAKE. Don't do it Billy Knight. Regardless, Conley to Hawks is a great fit and could really help this team.

4. Memphis Grizzlies - Brandan Wright

The Grizz take a shot on Wright at the 4 spot. While I still don't like his motor, his raw skills and physical talents are too much to pass up. This could end up being the all-world talent, no-motor team with Wright teamed up with Gay. Maybe poor Pau Gasol finally gets out of there.

5. Boston Celtics - Corey Brewer

The C's stop whining about their horrid streak of lottery luck and pick up a solid All-Star type wing. Brewer's plays tenacious defense, is a winner, and his attitude will help this young Celtics team for years to come. His offensive game is coming around and a few years being mentored by Pierce can only help. Horford and Jefferson are the same player and Yi is too much of a risk here.

6. Milwaukee Bucks - Al Horford

Who wants to play a healthy version of the Bucks with a frontcourt consisting of lottery picks Bogut, Villaneuva, and Horford? With Redd knocking down 3s, this team could turn it around in a hurry. Sign Mo Williams and you're back in the playoffs next year barring another onslaught of injuries.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves - Joakim Noah

One things for sure. If the Wolves decide to continue torturing KG and keep him around, this team's frontcourt will bring the intensity every night. Noah's motor, shot-blocking, and rebounding will help but this team is still years away. McHale - please trade KG to the Bulls and put him out of his misery.

8. Charlotte Bobcats - Julian Wright

Wright instantly becomes Gerald Wallace's replacement when he walks and heads to the Magic. The Bobcats will miss Wallace's offense but they won't miss a step on the defensive end. Wright really needs to develop an effective jumper to keep people honest but in a few years, he could end up a star. Jordan should trade out of this pick and get some veterans on his team. They need to start winning and stop accumulating young talent.

9. Chicago Bulls - Yi Jianlian

With TT and Big Ben's superb defense, the Bulls can afford to upgrade the offense with Yi. While Yi's game is built on jumpers, he'll need to develop a post-up game fast to squeeze into the rotation.

Here's another spot to look for a trade. The Bulls were exposed once again in the playoffs for a lack of a post-up forward. Trade this pick, Gordon, Nocioni, and next year's first for KG and quit screwing around. Wallace, TT, Hinrich, and Deng should all be untouchable. Thabo has already shown he's a fantastic replacement for Gordon and KG puts this team over the top without mortgaging too much of the future. They'll miss Noc a lot but it's worth it to get a shot at KG.

10. Sacramento Kings - Spencer Hawes

Bust #1 of the draft. How many times does a center get picked in the 9-10-11-12 slot and work out? Best case is that Hawes develops into a young version of Brad Miller. More likely, he's the next Robert Swift / Patrick O'Bryant. Hawes has a highly developed offensive skill set but I'm not sold he has NBA-quality athleticism. Enjoy the D-League, my friend.

11. Atlanta Hawks - Tiago Splitter

If they take Conley at 3, they can afford to wait on Splitter assuming they can get some assurances that he will actually (and wants to) play in the U.S. Splitter would be a nice addition to go along with Shelden Williams in the middle. The glut of wing players left make no sense for this team even if it makes sense to pick up Green or Thornton. If they take Wright at 3, Acie Law is the pick here.

12. Philadelphia 76ers - Jeff Green

Can come in and be a vastly superior version of last year's pick, Rodney Carney. The Sixers still need a superstar before they'll be back in the playoffs but they have some nice pieces for the moment. Next year is going to be brutal but at least they are going in the right direction.

13. New Orleans Hornets - Al Thornton

Great fit for the Hornets. Mason walks and Thornton can hopefully fill in adequately. If he continues developing his mid-range game, this could end up being a great pick. Nick Young could also get a look here.

And that's all folks.