Here's my pre-Orlando take on the NBA Lottery (I'm not going to claim knowledge about the fringe foreign prospects yet which would completely tank my late first round projections):
1. Portland Trail Blazers - Kevin Durant
Durant just makes too much sense for the Blazers. They already have a stud power forward in Randolph (despite all of his off-court shenanigans, the boy can flat out play) and as has been written countless times, LaMarcus Alridge and Greg Oden do not have complimentary styles of play. So I've got the Blazers taking Durant. I'm probably wrong but my gut says they go with the next D-Wade / LeBron type player.
2. Seattle Supersonics - Greg Oden
They've been trying to draft a quality big man for the past three years and according to this projection, they get their man. Additionally, with Oden manning the middle and Allen shootin' lights out at the 2, Rashard Lewis may have enough incentive to stick around. Added bonus: Oden saves Seattle basketball.
3. Atlanta Hawks - Mike Conley
They have way too many wing players and a huge, glaring, ridiculous need for a real point guard (and yes, a center). Conley is their guy. Knowing the Hawks, they'll take another over-rated UNC prospect in Brandan Wright whose post game is a joy to watch but the kid just plays with no fire. As an ACC alum, I've seen him countless times and I always come away saying, if he put in half the effort of Hansborough, he'll end up a superstar. HUGE MISTAKE. Don't do it Billy Knight. Regardless, Conley to Hawks is a great fit and could really help this team.
4. Memphis Grizzlies - Brandan Wright
The Grizz take a shot on Wright at the 4 spot. While I still don't like his motor, his raw skills and physical talents are too much to pass up. This could end up being the all-world talent, no-motor team with Wright teamed up with Gay. Maybe poor Pau Gasol finally gets out of there.
5. Boston Celtics - Corey Brewer
The C's stop whining about their horrid streak of lottery luck and pick up a solid All-Star type wing. Brewer's plays tenacious defense, is a winner, and his attitude will help this young Celtics team for years to come. His offensive game is coming around and a few years being mentored by Pierce can only help. Horford and Jefferson are the same player and Yi is too much of a risk here.
6. Milwaukee Bucks - Al Horford
Who wants to play a healthy version of the Bucks with a frontcourt consisting of lottery picks Bogut, Villaneuva, and Horford? With Redd knocking down 3s, this team could turn it around in a hurry. Sign Mo Williams and you're back in the playoffs next year barring another onslaught of injuries.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves - Joakim Noah
One things for sure. If the Wolves decide to continue torturing KG and keep him around, this team's frontcourt will bring the intensity every night. Noah's motor, shot-blocking, and rebounding will help but this team is still years away. McHale - please trade KG to the Bulls and put him out of his misery.
8. Charlotte Bobcats - Julian Wright
Wright instantly becomes Gerald Wallace's replacement when he walks and heads to the Magic. The Bobcats will miss Wallace's offense but they won't miss a step on the defensive end. Wright really needs to develop an effective jumper to keep people honest but in a few years, he could end up a star. Jordan should trade out of this pick and get some veterans on his team. They need to start winning and stop accumulating young talent.
9. Chicago Bulls - Yi Jianlian
With TT and Big Ben's superb defense, the Bulls can afford to upgrade the offense with Yi. While Yi's game is built on jumpers, he'll need to develop a post-up game fast to squeeze into the rotation.
Here's another spot to look for a trade. The Bulls were exposed once again in the playoffs for a lack of a post-up forward. Trade this pick, Gordon, Nocioni, and next year's first for KG and quit screwing around. Wallace, TT, Hinrich, and Deng should all be untouchable. Thabo has already shown he's a fantastic replacement for Gordon and KG puts this team over the top without mortgaging too much of the future. They'll miss Noc a lot but it's worth it to get a shot at KG.
10. Sacramento Kings - Spencer Hawes
Bust #1 of the draft. How many times does a center get picked in the 9-10-11-12 slot and work out? Best case is that Hawes develops into a young version of Brad Miller. More likely, he's the next Robert Swift / Patrick O'Bryant. Hawes has a highly developed offensive skill set but I'm not sold he has NBA-quality athleticism. Enjoy the D-League, my friend.
11. Atlanta Hawks - Tiago Splitter
If they take Conley at 3, they can afford to wait on Splitter assuming they can get some assurances that he will actually (and wants to) play in the U.S. Splitter would be a nice addition to go along with Shelden Williams in the middle. The glut of wing players left make no sense for this team even if it makes sense to pick up Green or Thornton. If they take Wright at 3, Acie Law is the pick here.
12. Philadelphia 76ers - Jeff Green
Can come in and be a vastly superior version of last year's pick, Rodney Carney. The Sixers still need a superstar before they'll be back in the playoffs but they have some nice pieces for the moment. Next year is going to be brutal but at least they are going in the right direction.
13. New Orleans Hornets - Al Thornton
Great fit for the Hornets. Mason walks and Thornton can hopefully fill in adequately. If he continues developing his mid-range game, this could end up being a great pick. Nick Young could also get a look here.
And that's all folks.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Durant to Pros
Draftexpress.net is reporting the Kevin Durant will announce that he will declaring himself eligible for the NBA draft sometime mid-next week. This development should come as a surprise to no one as the future superstar is projected to be a top-two pick in the upcoming draft.
Thanks for the memories, KD. Here comes the tank-a-thon from teams like the Celts and Griz.
Does anyone really think the lottery is deterring teams from sitting their star players for the season as a tactic to increase their odds? Stats guru John Hollinger has provided evidence that no competitive advantage can be acheived through this strategy. Furthermore, based on his superb research, the only thing it's going to do is turn off an already irritated fanbase for the remainder of the season. As an old school Mavericks fan, I remember sitting through the horrid 15 - 20 win seasons and the notion of them trying to be worse didn't make me want to run out and buy more tickets.
Particularly in this year's draft, we have no idea if Brandon Wright is the next Bosh or maybe Horford is going to terrorize defenses like a Randolph (without the drama) or J. O'Neal. With a draft that appears so deep, just play out the games guys!
The clock is ticking Oden....Hope you enjoyed college because play time's over.
Thanks for the memories, KD. Here comes the tank-a-thon from teams like the Celts and Griz.
Does anyone really think the lottery is deterring teams from sitting their star players for the season as a tactic to increase their odds? Stats guru John Hollinger has provided evidence that no competitive advantage can be acheived through this strategy. Furthermore, based on his superb research, the only thing it's going to do is turn off an already irritated fanbase for the remainder of the season. As an old school Mavericks fan, I remember sitting through the horrid 15 - 20 win seasons and the notion of them trying to be worse didn't make me want to run out and buy more tickets.
Particularly in this year's draft, we have no idea if Brandon Wright is the next Bosh or maybe Horford is going to terrorize defenses like a Randolph (without the drama) or J. O'Neal. With a draft that appears so deep, just play out the games guys!
The clock is ticking Oden....Hope you enjoyed college because play time's over.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Preps or Pros
It's that time of the year again! A slew of college basketball stars will leave their respective schools pining for one more year. And conversely, NBA fans (the few that are still in existience) cross their fingers, wait for the pong balls to drop, and pray for the next Big Thing.
For the first time in many years, there are two legitimate studs at the top of the draft and teams around the league are putting their stars on the bench in hopes of enhancing their chances at Oden or Durant. While both of those players certainly look like certain superstars, what about all of the players that are going to make the colossal mistake of declaring and going undrafted.
Here's a look at last year's draft class (this list will only include collegiate players):
Declared and signed with an agent: 37
Total drafted in first round: 16
Total drafted in second round: 8
Based on these numbers (which do not include players currently active on NBA rosters), about 35% of the eligible players went undrafted. With a few exceptions, I do not believe that any of these players made the correct decision to enter the draft and all of them would be best served to have gone back to school.
All of this has been written over and over again but I believe there is a fundamental issue that serves as the primary source of the problem. While it is great to believe in yourself, college players are delusional when it comes to accurately evaluating their own talent and their ability to compete in professional basketball. As a solution to this, here's what I would propose: a new elite summer league for college freshman and sophomores to compete against the summer teams put together by the NBA teams. Expand the league, invite 50 -60 college players, hire some quality NBA assistants to run these teams.
The advantages to this sort of league would be tremendous:
- Allow college players to see the remarkable difference in experience that raw talent can not consistently overcome
- Player development for all of those involved.
- A marketable summer league for basketball. These games could and should be televised across the country. Imagine the possibility of a team with Oden and Durant playing against last year's draft picks? Experience vs. talent? At the minimum, it would be fun to watch.
Of course, the downside is injuries to the college kids and them spending their time over the summer not in class.
Thoughts?
For the first time in many years, there are two legitimate studs at the top of the draft and teams around the league are putting their stars on the bench in hopes of enhancing their chances at Oden or Durant. While both of those players certainly look like certain superstars, what about all of the players that are going to make the colossal mistake of declaring and going undrafted.
Here's a look at last year's draft class (this list will only include collegiate players):
Declared and signed with an agent: 37
Total drafted in first round: 16
Total drafted in second round: 8
Based on these numbers (which do not include players currently active on NBA rosters), about 35% of the eligible players went undrafted. With a few exceptions, I do not believe that any of these players made the correct decision to enter the draft and all of them would be best served to have gone back to school.
All of this has been written over and over again but I believe there is a fundamental issue that serves as the primary source of the problem. While it is great to believe in yourself, college players are delusional when it comes to accurately evaluating their own talent and their ability to compete in professional basketball. As a solution to this, here's what I would propose: a new elite summer league for college freshman and sophomores to compete against the summer teams put together by the NBA teams. Expand the league, invite 50 -60 college players, hire some quality NBA assistants to run these teams.
The advantages to this sort of league would be tremendous:
- Allow college players to see the remarkable difference in experience that raw talent can not consistently overcome
- Player development for all of those involved.
- A marketable summer league for basketball. These games could and should be televised across the country. Imagine the possibility of a team with Oden and Durant playing against last year's draft picks? Experience vs. talent? At the minimum, it would be fun to watch.
Of course, the downside is injuries to the college kids and them spending their time over the summer not in class.
Thoughts?
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